Magic Number's Greatest Secrets Revealed

Well, as a first thing that you will need to know to take advantage of the price changes throughout the year is how the Dream Team costs are calculated and changed throughout the year. The key to this is a Magic Number which translates the players average score to a cost which represents that players market value.

My calculations have given me a value of 4139.844053 or there abouts :)

The players initial value is still a little bit of a mystery to me but I can confirm that the future value is pretty close to:

New Price = 0.7387 x Current Price + 0.2623 x Market Price

Where Market Price is average of kast 3 games multipled by the Magic Number.

This can be used to determine what a player's breakeven price is and therefore workout when to trade players. A good example is where Fantasy Freako said that Gibbs needs 150 this week so wait a week he will likely come down.

So there you go - wait for next post with statistical breakdowns about which positions score more, which players are the top 10 most likely to rise in value (lowest break evens) and other stats that I am happy to get requests for in the comments.

Nando

Introduction and Start of the Season

Welcome to the first of what I hope will be a series of entries discussing, celebrating and at times commiserating the week that was in the 2010 AFL Dreamteam.

I am hoping that this will be something that those who already get statistics, ideas , discussion and even software from me can use as a place to have even more discussion and fun.

It is right before round 5 of the season and there has already been some very important moves, trades, good performers and shockers that have happened. Before I get too far into that though I want to clear up a few things. The resources that I use for my statistics and software that will be regularly discussed and mentioned are:

AFL Dream Team Site - Player data, costs, 2010 season stats etc

Fantasy Freako weekly email - Preseason statistics, some weekly stats (minutes on ground etc) and more

Injury Update - For current player injuries, when occured and recovery dates

AFL Website - Player selections (in the Teams new post each week)

Also before we get too far into it I want to explain that when I refer to the Magic Number I am referring to the value of $/points that is used to calculate the new player values. The next post will be all about it and will hopefully result in the software that I make to be much much more accurate.

But for now that will do as an introduction and there hopefully will be much more coming soon.

Andy (Nando or Body) Roberts